M.A. Badri
Transporting a significant amount of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf has caused damages to marine environment due to oil spills and water pollution. Therefore, it is an important task to model oil spill damages and evaluate risks in order to prevent damages to the ecosystem. By considering the velocity and cleaning capacity of oil cleaning vessels in order to determine the oil slick behaviour, the Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used in several oil spill scenarios to obtain the optimum placement of the vessels. Six major risks of damages were considered for the Persian Gulf and all damages were analysed using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). With simultaneous using of GA and AHP, a quantitative analysis of probabilities of hazards, financial losses and environmental damages was provided. The effects of each major risk based on location, volume of oil spill, weather condition and optimum placement of oil cleaning vessels were determined and overall risks were assessed to develop the risk map of oil spill in the Persian Gulf. As a quantitative evaluation, the critical scenario in the risk map may be a refined oil with a spill size greater than 500 tones with wind speed greater than 14 [m/sec] and happens in spring.
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